Publication Date
3-2022
Publisher
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
City
Australia
Abstract
This project involved analysis of livestock movements and used epidemiological modelling and cost analysis to estimate the benefits and costs of implementing livestock standstills in response to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Australia. This was done in four steps: 1) assessing the extent of livestock movement, 2) conducting a cross sectional analysis of the impact (reduction of outbreak size and economic cost) of implementing a national standstill/movement control, 3) use of case specific studies to estimate impact of state/territory level implementation of standstill, and 4) cost analysis and comparison of national standstill with the state/jurisdictional level and risk-based approach strategies.
Estimation of the extent of livestock movement within and between jurisdictions was done using the 2019 (calendar year) Australian National Livestock Identification System (NLIS) data, i.e., prior to the COVID 19 pandemic, for cattle, sheep and goats and pigs. Estimation of the epidemiological and economic impact of implementing standstill to control FMD at the national and state levels was done using the Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS). To test the hypothesis that a national livestock standstill is effective in reducing spread of infection, a wide range of potential FMD incursions (n=10,000) was used and the actual numbers of infected herds in the population were compared after 7 days of control, with and without a 3-day national livestock standstill. Additionally, five detailed outbreak incursion scenarios, developed in consultation with jurisdictions or based on previous national modelling scenarios, were also simulated. These were biased to larger multi-jurisdictional outbreaks aimed at showing any potential benefits of livestock standstills in reducing the size and duration of the ensuing outbreaks. National 3- and 10-day livestock standstills were compared with other standstills involving the infected jurisdiction(s) only, or regional standstills (infected and adjacent jurisdictions).
Cost analysis involved identifying components associated with implementing and managing livestock standstills. This included analysis of three approaches to managing livestock in transit: (a) livestock in transit continuing the movement to their initially intended destination (Proceed to Destination); (b) a risk assessed option (Mixed option) which considered type of property of origin and destination, whether involving single/multiple consignments on transport vehicles and distances travelled; and (c) a third option of redirecting all livestock in transit to abattoir (Redirect to Slaughter).
Number of Pages
114
Keywords
epidemiological modelling, foot-and-mouth disease, livestock standstills, livestock movement, economic cost, biosecurity, disease, incursion, abattoir, slaughter
Disciplines
Agricultural Economics | Beef Science | Biosecurity | Dairy Science | Meat Science | Sheep and Goat Science
Recommended Citation
Seitzinger A, Garner G, Bradhurst, R, and Okelo W. (2022), Analysis of livestock movements and the benefits and costs of livestock standstills in Australia as part of the response to foot-and-mouth disease. CSIRO, Australia.
Maps
Maps are not included as part of the complete document download. If this report contains a map, it will be available in the individual parts list below.
This file is 4.4 MB. Files over 3MB may be slow to open. For best results, right-click and select "save as..."
Included in
Agricultural Economics Commons, Beef Science Commons, Biosecurity Commons, Dairy Science Commons, Meat Science Commons, Sheep and Goat Science Commons
