Seasonal variability in the South West Land Division: what’s in store for 2025?
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
2-24-2025
Keywords
south west land division, climate, weather projections, Western Australia
Disciplines
Agronomy and Crop Sciences | Climate | Meteorology
Abstract
- Climate trends in the South West Land Division (SWLD): Analysis of three time periods, 1950–1974, 1975–1999 and 2000–2024, reveals declining April–October rainfall, stable November–March rainfall, an increase in days exceeding 32°C between August–November, and a stable number of nights below 2°C during August–October.
- Performance of probabilistic rainfall outlooks: Evaluation of three-month probabilistic rainfall outlooks over 60 months (12 months × 5 years) indicates multi-model consensus occurred 48 times. Of the 48 times, the outlooks were correct 48% of the time and incorrect 13% of the time.
- 2025 seasonal outlook: Current projections for the 2025 season suggest neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Most models indicate above median rainfall for February to April, accompanied by above normal maximum and minimum temperatures for the SWLD.
Recommended Citation
Guthrie, M M,
and
Foster, I.
(2025), Seasonal variability in the South West Land Division: what’s in store for 2025?. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Western Australia, Perth. Report.
https://library.dpird.wa.gov.au/cs_researchrpts/7
