Can seasonal forecasting improve grower profitability?

Document Type

Report

Publication Date

2-26-2018

Journal Title

Grains Research and Development Corporation

Keywords

Statistical Seasonal Forecast, Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

Disciplines

Agricultural Science | Agronomy and Crop Sciences | Atmospheric Sciences | Climate | Oceanography

Abstract

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) and the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) produce three month outlooks throughout the year. Analysis of six years of data (2012 to 2017) indicates that SSF had some success in indicating whether May to July rainfall was above or below median particularly in the north and central regions.


SSF also produces growing season outlooks in April for the following May to October. Six years of analysis (2012 to 2017) found that the SSF correctly indicated the growing season in 5 years in the northern and central agricultural regions, four years in Esperance and only two years in the southern agricultural region. SSF correctly indicated the below median years 2015 and 2017 for the entire grainbelt. SSF incorrectly forecast 2012 as being above median in the northern and southern region.


Rainfall outlooks produced in June for the July-September period can be used to refine N rates for top dressing. However, this study over thirty seven years (1981 to 2017) found that there was little economic benefit from using forecast July-September rainfall rather than historic median rainfall to estimate potential yield when determining N rates. This is because the outlooks had only minor success at indicating July-September rainfall. Other studies indicate that the outlooks may provide value at seeding times, when they have relatively more skill at indicating May rainfall.

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