Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-28-2020
Journal Title
Agricultural Systems
ISSN
ISSN 0308-521X eISSN 1873-2267
Keywords
Mixed farm systems, Bio-economic, Modelling, Adaptation, Climate change, GHG
Disciplines
Agribusiness | Agricultural Economics | Agricultural Science | Agronomy and Crop Sciences | Climate | Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment | Environmental Monitoring | Finance and Financial Management | Fresh Water Studies | Hydrology | Natural Resource Economics | Natural Resources Management and Policy | Risk Analysis | Sustainability | Water Resource Management
Abstract
Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for over half of the global population. However, some important food exporting countries, like Australia, are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and may require transformative adaptations if they are to continue their role in food exportation. This paper assesses the potential impacts of projected climate change by 2030 (0.4–1.6° increase in mean temperature) on Australian mixed crop-livestock systems and examines the consequences of shifts in land allocations to cropping and grazing, in these systems, as an adaptation option. Farm bio-economic simulation models were developed for these mixed enterprise systems in several regions of Australia. These models were based on biophysically coupled crop, pasture, and livestock simulation models that in turn drew on site-based downscaled climate projection datasets. The farm models calculated farm profitability and risk measures. A range of land use changes was investigated. At drier locations facing adverse climate change, results showed a transition towards a greater emphasis on livestock production could be beneficial when assessed against multiple criteria of farm profit, downside financial risk, and environmental damage. We highlight some industry and government actions and policies that could facilitate these preferred adaptation strategies at such locations.
Recommended Citation
Afshin Ghahramani, Ross S. Kingwell, Tek Narayan Maraseni, Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation, Agricultural Systems, Volume 180, 2020, 102791, ISSN 0308-521X, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102791.
