Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia

Authors

David C. Cook, Department of Agriculture and Food, WAFollow
Shuang Liu, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationFollow
Jacqueline Edwards, Department of Primary Industries, Victoria
Oscar N. Villalta, Department of Primary Industries, Victoria
Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Department of Primary Industries, VictoriaFollow
Darren J. Kriticos, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-7-2012

Journal Title

PLoS One

ISSN

1932-6203

Keywords

Bananas, Fruit crops, Australia, Mass diffusivity, Probability density, Population density, Economic analysis, Vector-borne diseases

Disciplines

Agricultural Economics | Biosecurity

Abstract

Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response.

Recommended Citation

Cook, D C, Liu, S, Edwards, J, Villalta, O N, Aurambout, J, and Kriticos, D J. (2012), Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia. PLoS One, 7 (8), e42391.
https://library.dpird.wa.gov.au/bs_research/19